Holy Roman Empire

After Wilhelm I’s visit to London, the international situation became increasingly clear. With warming Anglo-Prussian relations, Russia and Austria, having just ended their alliance, found themselves drawn back together. The deciding factor for Europe’s future direction now lay in France’s hands.

If the French government chose to support Russia, the outcome of this war would be decided in advance. Conversely, if they supported the Prussian-Polish Federation, the war’s outcome would remain uncertain until it was fought.

At the Palace of Versailles, Napoleon IV was very pleased with the current state of affairs. Both Russia and Prussia were vying for France’s favor, and the feeling of holding the power to shape Europe’s future was simply delightful.

Foreign Minister Dumbledore reported, “Your Majesty, the Russian delegation has suddenly altered its schedule, canceling their visit to London. They are now expected to arrive in Paris in three days.”

TN: 邓布利多 is the raw. In my opinion, this kinda breaks immersion. Should I change these kinds of things into their true historical counterparts?

Napoleon IV smiled slightly. He knew that the Russian government was growing desperate.

In terms of overall national strength, the Russian Empire held an advantage over the Prussian-Polish Federation. However, wars were not solely contests of national power, external support was equally crucial.

The Prussian-Polish Federation had already secured Britain’s backing. If they also gained France’s support, Russia would still be at a disadvantage even with Austria on its side.

The harsh reality for Russia was that having no money was simply not an option. Financially, the combined resources of Britain and France far surpassed what Austria could provide.

In essence, this was Russia’s war, not Austria’s. While the Austrian government could support them, it would never commit unlimited resources.

Unless the war could be concluded swiftly, it would ultimately boil down to financial endurance. Having learned from their previous war, the Russian government no longer harbored illusions of a quick victory.

Shaking his head, Napoleon IV remarked, “Only now do they begin to act? The Russians must be fools!”

The Russian delegation arrived in Paris before Wilhelm I’s visit, which on the surface wouldn’t seem late. However, Napoleon IV’s remark about their tardiness was not without reason.

There had been opportunities in the past for France and Russia to draw closer, but unfortunately, neither side seized them. This was a lingering issue from history. The conflicts between the two nations sparked by the Napoleonic Wars were further exacerbated during the Near East War.

Napoleon III had once tried to ease Franco-Russian relations, but his efforts were thwarted by Britain and Austria, ultimately ending in failure.

After the Prussian-Danish territorial transaction, France and Russia lost their mutual interest in forming an alliance, and the final opportunity for partnership was extinguished.

Regret offers no remedy in this world. With the shifting tides of international affairs, France no longer has any need to ally with Russia.

The young and ambitious Napoleon IV shares the same hunger for greatness, striving to surpass his father by achieving even greater feats. As such, France needs followers, not competitors.

The Russian Empire, however, is unlikely to lower itself to become a follower. Even if Alexander II were willing to endure such humiliation, the Russian people would never agree.

Foreign Minister Dumbledore waved dismissively, “The Russians have always approached diplomacy rather haphazardly. This is nothing unusual.

From Nicholas I’s alliance with Austria, to Alexander II’s pro-Prussian, anti-Austrian strategy after ascending the throne, and later to the fallout between Prussia and Russia, as well as the breakdown of the Russo-Austrian alliance—it’s all the same.

The Russian government’s foreign policy is overly influenced by personal will. Not only does it lack long-term planning, but it is also prone to frequent changes and even contradictions.”

Sensing something, Dumbledore decisively chose to stop there. While the Russian government’s foreign policy was chaotic, the French government’s wasn’t much better.

Among the great European powers, Britain and Austria had the most consistent foreign policies. Their continental balance strategies had endured since the end of the Napoleonic Wars and continued to shape the European political landscape today.

Although there had been disruptions along the way, the overall direction had never wavered. The current European order was, in fact, a product of Britain and Austria’s “continental balance” policies.

Napoleon IV nodded and said, “Enough, this is actually a good thing. The Russians’ arrival will help me negotiate with the Prussian-Polish Federation.

The European continent is too small to accommodate so many great powers. Austria and Britain are already causing enough trouble for us, we cannot allow a fourth pole to emerge.”

The pie is only so large, and splitting it three ways already fails to satisfy everyone’s appetite. A fourth party coming to claim a slice would be unwelcome by all.

On the issue of suppressing the rise of newcomers, Britain, France, and Austria were remarkably aligned. Whether supporting the Prussian-Polish Federation or the Russian Empire, there was one prerequisite: they could not be allowed to grow too strong.

Though the three powers seemed divided into two camps this time, ostensibly due to conflicting interests, there was an unspoken consensus among them that neither Prussia-Poland nor Russia should win this war easily.

In this round of diplomatic competition, Russia had lost from the outset. No matter how hard the Russian government tried, it was impossible for them to secure more support.

Foreign Minister Dumbledore reported, “Your Majesty, we’ve received word from London. Wilhelm I is seeking alliances with major powers, but the British have already explicitly rejected him.

If nothing unexpected happens, Wilhelm I will likely seek an alliance with us next. This is a significant matter, and we must tread carefully.”

A Franco-Prussian alliance? If this had been proposed 20–30 years ago, the French government would have eagerly welcomed an ally to help share the burden. Even a decade ago, they would have agreed without hesitation.

But now, things are different. Setting aside the Anglo-Franco-Austrian Tripartite Alliance, France also has Spain as an ally. The need for alliances is no longer as desperate.

Napoleon IV sneered, “There’s nothing to consider. If the Prussian-Polish Federation wants an alliance with us, they first need to defeat the Russians. If they lose the war, what qualifications would they have to discuss an alliance with us?”

What benefits would France gain from allying with the Prussian-Polish Federation now, other than taking on obligations?

Even if the Prussian-Polish Federation were victorious, Napoleon IV would still need to carefully weigh the pros and cons of a Franco-Prussian alliance. At the very least, the positions of Britain and Austria could not be ignored.

…

After the grand welcoming ceremony concluded, Crown Prince Alexander Alexandrovich left with a deep sense of worry.

Despite the apparent grandeur of the ceremony, there was an unmistakable undertone of distance and aloofness. Clearly, the people of Paris were not welcoming.

If not for House Bonaparte’s desire to integrate into the European royal circle and their emphasis on protocol, they might not have even bothered with this facade of hospitality.

From the start, it was a clear power play, and Alexander had already lost hope for the upcoming negotiations.

Originally, he had planned to visit Denmark as the first stop, focusing diplomatic efforts on the Nordic Federation while leaving any breakthroughs with Britain and France to chance.

Unfortunately, the Russian Empire was not yet his to govern. Even though he had been involved in state affairs for many years, his voice in foreign policy was still limited.

The idea of winning over Britain and France seemed appealing, offering the potential to secure victory outright, but in reality, success was never a possibility.

The fundamental issue was “leverage.” The Russian government had nothing compelling to offer that could move them.

Pledging gold as collateral? Impossible, the Tsar would not dare risk it. Just as Britain and France have no trust for the Russians, the Russian government distrusted them as well.

Unlike Austria, which was geographically close, a breach of trust with Austria could be resolved by force if necessary. The cost of war was clearly higher than the value of any collateral, providing enough incentive for the Austrian government to uphold their agreements.

Britain and France were a different matter. Situated thousands of miles away, they were completely beyond Russia’s reach. If one day they decided to breach an agreement, the Russian economy would collapse immediately, leaving no chance for retaliation.

Territorial collateral? Not to mention collateral, whether sold or ceded outright, even if Russia were willing, Britain and France would not dare accept it.

Under normal circumstances, no European country would willingly ally with Russia. Britain and France, as colonial empires, had no need for an isolated piece of land.

Diplomacy without mutual interest is merely an act of deception. Crown Prince Alexander Alexandrovich was simply going through the motions, and naturally, his enthusiasm was minimal.

“Your Highness, King Wilhelm I will be arriving in Paris tomorrow, and the French have arranged for the welcoming banquet to include both of you. It’s obvious they have ulterior motives,” a disgruntled Foreign Ministry official remarked.

After a moment of silence, Alexander Alexandrovich replied coldly, “Tell them I am feeling unwell and won’t be attending the banquet.”

As the Crown Prince, Alexander’s pride was immense. He would never willingly endure such humiliation.

In terms of status, Alexander, a grand duke as the heir, was technically inferior to Wilhelm I, who was a reigning king. This disparity alone was enough to irk him.

Given the imminent outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War, such an untimely meeting could easily give rise to unfavorable rumors in the press.

“But, Your Highness, if you don’t attend, the public might…”

Before the official could finish, Alexander Alexandrovich interrupted him, “No more buts. What could the public say? At worst, they’ll make up jokes about us being afraid.

Given the current relationship between France and Russia, do you really think French newspapers would say anything positive about us? If you want them to sing our praises, you might as well throw money at them. It’s the only thing that works.”

The more Alexander Alexandrovich understood France, the less confident he felt. Recalling the past, he couldn’t forget how, during the Polish independence movement, the French had even organized a volunteer army.

Although that army never left French soil, the strong hostility toward Russia was unmistakable. Against such a backdrop, trying to wage a propaganda battle in Paris would be futile without spending vast sums of money.

If France were still in its republican era, where public opinion could influence government decisions, it might have been worth the expense. But clearly, this was not the case now, and spending money would amount to throwing it into a bottomless pit.

Alexander Alexandrovich deliberately avoided Wilhelm I, and Wilhelm I in turn seemed to be avoiding Alexander. The two appeared to share an unspoken agreement never to appear in the same place.

Recognizing the French’s malicious intent, both men consciously avoided direct conflict, leaving the onlookers hoping for drama sorely disappointed.

At the Palace of Versailles, Napoleon IV was meeting with Wilhelm I. The atmosphere was warm and cheerful, like a reunion of long-lost friends.

Meanwhile, representatives from France and Prussia were engaged in heated debates over interests. Seeing that no breakthroughs were possible in the short term, Prussian-Polish Federation Foreign Minister Geoffrey Friedman decisively shifted the topic.

“Sir, the current international situation is not just unfavorable to us, it is equally unfavorable to your nation as well.”

French Foreign Minister Dumbledore shook his head and then replied, “Sir, there’s no need for such alarmist talk. The current international political landscape is the best France has seen in nearly a hundred years. We’ve already weathered the hardest times so what is there to fear now? A few threats are hardly worth mentioning.”

This was true. For nearly a century, France had been caught in the political maelstrom of Europe, constantly targeted and opposed by others.

Geoffrey Friedman took a small sip of coffee, then asked, “Really? Don’t you feel threatened by Austria, whose power has been rapidly growing?”

Dumbledore sneered, “Austria is indeed powerful and developing quickly, but it still doesn’t pose a threat to Great France. It is your country that needs to face the pressure from Austria. The border between Austria and Prussia is so long, and now the Austrian government is supporting the Russians.”

France did feel the threat from Austria, but it wasn’t as evident as the one from the Prussian-Polish Federation. With a short border and the French government’s confidence in its military power, France didn’t feel the pressure as much.

Geoffrey Friedman took out some prepared documents and handed them to Dumbledore.

“This is some of the intelligence we’ve gathered on Austria. You may want to take a look.”

Since they had already antagonized Austria, they might as well go all in. To prevent the Austrian government from taking sides in the upcoming war, the Prussian government needed to give Austria an enemy.

Looking at the world, only Britain and France had the power to restrict Austria. The British were too cunning to be easily deceived, and with their distance from Austria, they couldn’t feel the threat.

But the French, as neighbors, were different. The two countries had always been rivals, and they were always alert to even the smallest movements next door.

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